Demographic Trends
Macroeconomic Trends
Age-sex structure
Life expectancy
India is one of the most highly populated countries in the world. In 1991, the population was 844 million constituting about 16% of the world’s population. The most populous states are Uttar Pradesh (139 million), Bihar (86 million) Maharashtra (79 million), West Bengal (68 million), and Andhra Pradesh (66 million) (Registrar General of India 1991).
The population is growing at an annual rate of 2.11 % and is estimated to touch a billion mark (1022 million) by the year 2000 (Ghosh 1991). Every year, the country has been adding 11 to 16 million people (equivalent to the population of Australia) to its population base during the last two decades.
Change in population, is a function of the natural growth of population which in turn depends on death and birth rates. The main cause of the increase in India’s population is the fact that the fall in the crude death rate from 22.8 (per 1000 population) in 1951 to 10.2 in 1989, is greater than the fall from 41.7 to 30.5 in the birth rate, during the same period (Registrar General of India 1991). The density of population per square kilometer has increased from 177 to 267 between 1971-91 (Table 1).
The majority of India’s population (74.3% in 1991) live in rural areas of the country, although the urban growth rate is well ahead of the rural rate (Registrar General of India 1981). During the last two decades the annual growth rate in urban areas (4.0%) is more than double the rural (1.8%), the main cause being rural-urban migration rather than differences in natural growth.
Table 1: Trends in population
|
Census year |
Population (m) |
Decennial change (%) |
Sex ratio (females per 1000 males) |
Population density (per
km2) |
% urban to total popn. |
|
1951 |
362 |
13.3 |
946 |
117 |
17.3 |
|
1961 |
439 |
21.5 |
941 |
142 |
18.0 |
|
1971 |
548 |
24.8 |
930 |
177 |
19.9 |
|
1981 |
685 |
25.0 |
933 |
216 |
23.3 |
|
1991 |
844 |
23.5 |
929 |
267 |
25.7 |
Source: Registrar General of India 1991
The age-sex pyramid of India shows a wide base and narrow apex with a high proportion of children - typical of a developing country. The population of 0-4 years had declined from 14.5% in 1971 to 12.6% in 1981 (Registrar General of India 1981). The sex ratio (the number of females per 1,000 males) in developed countries favour women since they are biologically the stronger sex. In India it continues to be the reverse i.e. for every 1,000 men there are fewer women, with the trend being downwards, i.e. from 933 in 1981 to 929 in 1991 (Table 1). This persistent declining trend in the sex ratio over the past several decades indicates a disturbing disparity in the survival of men and women in the country. The imbalance is due to many causes of which the preferential ‘cultural access’ for males to social services - such as health and education - and the consequential wide disparity between male and female literacy rates, are important (see later section "Gender Issues in Child Care").
Expectation of life at birth reflects overall health conditions of the people. In India, the expectation of life at birth was 45 years during the decade ending 1971, 54 years in 1981 and 62 years in 1991 indicating progressive improvement. The sex differentials seen in earlier decades (the females having relatively lower expectations of life) are narrowing (see Table 2), suggesting the excess female child mortality is being balanced or exceeded by higher male mortality in older age groups.
The Government of India, in its document on National Health Policy (GOI 1983) set goals for some demographic parameters. It envisaged a reduction in annual birth and death rates from 32.9 and 11.8 respectively in 1985 to 21.0 and 9.0 per 1,000 population respectively by the year 2000, so that the rate of population growth is brought down to 1.20% from 2.14% in 1985. The results of the 1991 census however, indicate that the annual growth rate between 1981-91 was 2.11%. At this rate, the country’s population is expected to exceed one billion by the year 2000.
Table 2: Life expectancy at birth (years)
|
Year |
Male |
Female |
|
1961-71 |
46.4 |
44.7 |
|
1971-80* |
50.9 |
50.1 |
|
1981-86** |
55.6 |
56.4 |
|
1986-91 |
58.1 |
59.1 |
|
1991-96 |
60.6 |
61.7 |
|
1996-2001 |
62.8 |
64.2 |
|
2001 |
64.1 |
65.6 |
* Based on sample Registration System (paper 1 of 1984, Series I-India, Office of the Registrar General, India)** Source Report of the Expert Committee on Population Projection, Occasional Paper No. 4 (1981)
Source: Office of the Registrar General, India (Census Actuarial Reports and Sample Registration System)
While the Government of India has continued to be guided by the principle of economic growth with equity, in practice the economy has been two-track - with conventional growth on the one hand and special poverty alleviation programmes for those groups not benefiting, on the other.
During the 1980s, GNP showed an increasing trend both at current and constant prices (base year 1980-81). There was about a 32% increase in GNP at per capita level constant prices (from Rs. 1805 to Rs. 2392 as shown in Figure 1). India however remains one of the world’s poorest countries with a per capita income of around US $300 (UNICEF 1990).
In 1986-87, the highest contribution to the net domestic product was that of agriculture, forestry, and fishing (33.5%). During the period 1980-81 to 1986-87, there was a drop in the contribution of agriculture (from 39.9% to 33.5%) while that of the manufacturing industry increased from 17.0% to 20.8%. Other sectors do not register any appreciable change in their contribution to the net domestic product during this period (CSO 1989).
The economic situation of any country cannot be studied in isolation. Imports and exports affect the exchange value and the inflation rate and are in turn affected by both factors. The overall amount of external debt is a good indicator of the economic stress on the country’s financial position. During the 1980s India’s outstanding debt had increased from US $18,658 million to US $56,253 million, partly due to disappointing export growth and continuing fiscal deficits (the latter arising as a consequence of the decision not to cut back on public expenditures/subsidies). Part of the export earnings were diverted towards the repayment of this debt (principal and interest). The debt service ratio was 9.1% in 1980, rising to around 32% during 1986, then dropping to 26% for the year 1989 (see Figure 2). IMF credit has been increasing during this period. Over the same period, the value of the rupee on international money markets dropped, with the US dollar being able to buy 7.9 rupees in 1980-81 but 26.0 by July 1991 (GOI 1991). The exchange rate indicates the major economic adjustments made, devaluation of the currency being a common feature of adjustment.
Figure 1. Per Capita GNP - At 1980-81 prices
Figure 2. Debt Service Ratio
Source: GOI 1991
