3. Ethiopia

Impact of the Ethiopia/Eritrea border conflict

One year after the outbreak of the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, peace remains remote. A peace mission by the Chairman of the Organisation for African Unity, Blaise Compaore, to the two countries has been postponed. Fighting continues on the Badme front and also in other areas, particularly the Tsorona area in Zai Ambessa and around the Mereb river (IRIN - 07/05/99, 25/05/99, 15/06/99). In mid-May the Ethiopian airforce bombed the Eritrean Red Sea port of Massawa (IRIN -17/05/99).

Observers and analysts are increasingly concerned at the destablising effects of the war on the wider Horn of Africa. New supplies of weapons and ammunitions are fueling conflict while cross-border security incidents are on the rise. Deployment of land mines, refugee movements, population displacement and military recruitment of individuals aged less than eighteen are also spill-over humanitarian effects (IRIN -14/05/99).

An estimated 384,000 Ethiopians displaced by the conflict require assistance, but WFP's appeal remains under-resourced (UNDP - 10/06/99). Reports indicate that the living conditions of the displaced communities in Tigray are very poor. The IDPs are living in congested properties, which are lacking sanitation facilities and decent water supply for drinking and hygiene (Oxfam - 27/04/99; RI - 22/06/99). UNICEF has allocated 27 million birr (3.4 million US$) for a co-ordinated district infrastructure development in Tigray and Amhara and Benishangul-Gumz regional states for next year. Approximately half of this amount will be used for health, water, nutrition, hygiene and education programmes (IRIN - 07/06/99).

Drought and harvest failure in Ethiopia

Following successive marginal harvests in recent years in the northern region and a complete failure of this year's short (belg) rains, an acute shortage of food has emerged in many belg growing areas of the country. These include North and South Wello, North West Shoa (Oromia and Amhara), and South Tigray.

Faced with acute food insecurity, many people are reported to be migrating to urban areas in search of food and work. The most affected are the rural asset-poor, with limited access to arable land, low productivity and subsequent low purchasing power to secure their food requirements. Even in a relatively good year, it is estimated that some 43% of rural, crop-based households in Ethiopia are to some degree food insecure. Several joint assessment teams (the Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission of the Ethiopian Government, in conjunction with various donors, UN agencies and NGOs) have undertaken rapid assessments of the situation in North and South Wello, North Shoa, South Tigray and Hararghe. Without exception, the need for food aid intervention was in evidence in all woredas (districts) visited, although the degree of severity varied (FEWS - 28/05/99; UNDP - 27/05/99; WFP - 05/99

A range of coping and adaptive strategies which reflects the impact of the drought and harvest failure on food security have been reported. For example, abnormal out-migrations in search of paid work in the lowland areas have been confirmed in all woredas visited, with at least 13,000 migrations from South Tigray and North Wello alone. This usually does not occur until September to November. Farmers have been collecting firewood and selling it. Another coping mechanism is the sale of livestock. In many cases, however, people no longer have livestock to sell. For those who do, negative terms of trade work against them, with cereal prices increasing and livestock prices decreasing - the latter due to surplus on the market and the deteriorating condition of the animals. Other indicators of increasing stress include the consumption of wild plants, a decrease in school attendance and anecdotal reports of rising mortality, morbidity and rates of malnutrition. There have also been reports of an increased number of destitute people in urban centres (FEWS - 28/05/99; UNDP - 27/05/99; WFP - 05/99).

The current food security prospects are considered to be very poor in these areas. Though forecasts predicted a normal meher rainy season (long rains), plantings for the main season have already been delayed in many areas because of drought. As a result, the Government of Ethiopia has issued two consolidated appeals for assistance which outline an increase in the total tonnage required as compared with the amounts requested in December 1998. In response to these conditions WFP has approved a new emergency operation in Ethiopia for some additional 1.2 million people in drought stricken areas of the country for a period of seven months from June through to December (WFP - 04/06/99). This figure represents 31% of the most recent estimate of 4 million people in need of assistance in Ethiopia, although some regional governments have suggested that this estimate is low and that up to 5 million people require assistance (UNDP - 27/05/99).

South-eastern Ethiopia

The distribution of food continues to the drought affected people in the Somali-speaking area of Ethiopia where high prevalences of malnutrition were reported in this area in February (WFP - 07/05/99). In addition, some 2.3 million people are estimated to require assistance as a result of the 1998 meher crop failure (UNDP - 27/05/99).

Refugees in Ethiopia

A joint WFP/UNHCR Food Aid Assessment Mission was undertaken in April/May. The findings of the mission are summarised below.

Somali refugees in Eastern Ethiopia

In eastern Ethiopia there are an estimated 193,400 Somali refugees. Ethnic Somali clan areas cross the Somali-Ethiopian border. This means that numbers of refugees are difficult to estimate as they cannot be easily distinguished from either the resident population or the many Ethiopian refugees who have returned from Somalia. Voluntary repatriation of the Somalis is ongoing as the security situation in the northwest of their country has improved (the repatriation operation from Ethiopia was temporarily suspended by the Somaliland authorities in November 1998, resumed again in mid-June (UNHCR - 23/06/99)). Approximately 50,000 of the refugees have already repatriated and UNHCR plans to assist a further 130,000 people to repatriate by the end of 2000.

The Somali refugee camps are located in a semi-arid region where erratic and insufficient rainfall limits production of food crops considerably. Many of the Somali refugees are traders by profession and trading provides an important source of income for some of the wealthier refugees. Other sources of income include livestock, collection and sale of firewood and limited labour opportunities in the local communities. A survey in August 1998 reported that between 0-45% of the households had a backyard garden (depending on which camp they were in).

The mission noted that in both Hartishek and Kebrebeyah camps the number of admissions to their selective feeding programmes increased significantly. This may have been due to several factors including: severe drought conditions in the area which brought many Ethiopian nationals into the camp health programmes seeking assistance, the discontinuation of the blanket supplementary feeding programme several months before (see RNIS 26) and insufficient outreach by the health team.

Although nutritional surveys have not been undertaken specifically amongst the Somali refugee population during the reporting period, an SCF-US report on the nutritional status of children under five in the Dollo region in the far south of Ethiopia, did include some Kenyan and Somali refugees (see Annex). A nutritional screening found that the prevalence of acute wasting among the resident population was 22.7%, with 3% severe wasting, while the refugee children suffered a higher prevalence of malnutrition (29.9% acute wasting and/or oedema). However, only a small number of refugee children were assessed in this survey.

Sudanese refugees in Western Ethiopia

The situation of the approximately 61,120 Sudanese in camps in the west of the country is quite different from that of the Somalis. Repatriation is only considered on a case-by-case basis and it is anticipated that their numbers will, increase as the conflict in Southern Sudan continues. The mission found that refugees have somewhat better opportunities to attain some level of self-sufficiency in food production than the Somalis as all but one of the camps are located in areas with the potential for agricultural activities. Agricultural production is, however, seriously limited by restrictions imposed by the Ethiopian Government on the use of land by the refugees. Refugees are not allowed to fish, hunt or collect firewood around the camps, although many do so illegally (and may damage the environment around the camps in doing so). An estimated 76% of households cultivate a backyard garden in three of the camps. These plots may provide up to 10-15% of the households food requirements. One problem noted by he mission is that the Sudanese refugees have a very high population growth and the increase in the number of households (after marriage) and subsequent division of the backyard plots will result in the reduction of agricultural production per family over time.

In general the health situation of the refugees in Ethiopia is reported to be satisfactory. The average CMR and under-five mortality in the eastern camps are 0.2 and 0.2/10,000/day and 0.2 and 0.3/10,000/day in the western camps. There have been no epidemics over the last year and the general health situation is reported to be stable. The nutritional situation of the refugees is also reported to be generally satisfactory. Amongst the refugee children under five less than 10% acute wasting (<80% median weight for height) is reported in all except three camps.

One criticism made by the Joint Assessment Mission was that due to resourcing difficulties there were disruptions in the distributions of some commodities (oil, sugar and salt) to the beneficiaries. This resulted in the distribution of different commodities for use over a different time period. In such circumstances it is extremely difficult for the beneficiaries to keep track of the quantity of their entitlement or plan the use of their food ration accurately. This can result in serious hardship. A further pipeline break for sugar and salt was expected last month (June). A further criticism was that, in general, it was observed that the mechanical mills provided by WFP were not providing a satisfactory service to the refugees as in many camps the mills were not running to full capacity due to lack of spare parts, poor management and restricted hours. WFP is in the process of providing 98 new manual grinding mills to the camps.

In addition to the Somalis and the Sudanese there are some 5,000 Kenyan refugees in the south of Ethiopia who receive food assistance from WFP (UNHCR - 23/06/99). There are also some 3,000 Djiboutians. Many of these refugees are in the process of repatriating and thus will not require food assistance in the future.

Overall, acute food shortages are expected in many belg growing areas of the country, as a result of drought. The drought-affected population are considered to be at high risk (category IIa), partly because even though WFP has already committed to providing emergency assistance this is yet to be resourced. Note that the RNIS has only received reports of 13,000 people becoming displaced by the drought, although it is expected that the actual figure is considerably higher given the total numbers of people affected. The conflict-affected population is also considered to be at high risk (category IIa), principally because of the public health problems. The refugees are considered to be at moderate risk (IIb).

Priorities and Recommendations:

· Funds must be made available to WFP's emergency appeal for the drought-affected populations in order to prevent a full-scale famine.

· Reinstall the blanket-feeding programmes for children under-five in the eastern camps.

· WFP must address the issue of timely food deliveries to the refugee camps as a matter of priority. Where breaks in the food aid pipeline are inevitable, revised distribution schedules must be made available at all camps and communicated to refugees in order to allow them to manage their household resources better.

· Ensure that the manual grinding mills are installed in the refugee camps without delay.

· Dialogue between UNHCR and the Government of Ethiopia should continue with the aim to increase the amount of agricultural land available to the Sudanese refugees.

· Investigate the possibilities of undertaking food-for-work projects for the Sudanese refugees in order to repair the environmental damage around their camps.

· Develop horticulture, bee-keeping, poultry and livestock activities in the camps.

· Re-establish supplementary feeding centres