Impact of the border conflict
More than a year after the outbreak of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea over a border dispute, fighting continues sporadically. Despite the efforts of the Organisation for African Unity (OAU) and various international governments, no peace agreement has been signed to date, although a peace proposal is currently being examined by both parties. The exact number of deaths due to the war is not yet known, but it is thought that tens of thousands have died on both sides. Regional analysts are becoming increasingly worried about the war which has spread to Somalia (USAID - 30/08/99).
The war has displaced an estimated 385,000 people from their homes along the border with Eritrea. Most are living in host communities or caves. The avoidance of the establishment of camps is a primary concern for the Government and donors alike. No new information is available on their nutritional situation, although the results of a USAID-funded survey are expected soon. WFP has been assisting 272,000 of the displaced people since March, although resourcing remains a critical problem. Only slightly more than 50% of the cereal required has been committed to date, although other commodities are fully resourced (WFP - 22/09/99).
Drought and harvest failure in Ethiopia
There is a major food shortage emergency in Ethiopia due primarily to drought: an estimated 5 million people require assistance. Drought conditions have been brought on by the almost total failure of the primary belg rains (February-May) in the northeast, and delayed and uneven distribution in other areas of the country. Various other factors have contributed to the food emergency including: low crop yields over the past 2-3 years; army worm infestations in some parts of the country; population pressures resulting in land-holdings which are too small to be self-sustaining; large livestock losses (due to the drought) reducing income-producing potential. The cumulative response from food aid donors has also been significantly less than requested over the past seven years, which has resulted in a gradual erosion of assets leaving many fanning communities with virtually no asset-based coping mechanisms (UNDP - 31/08/99a; WFP - 16/07/99, 22/09/99).
Although the belg provides only 5-7% of Ethiopia's national harvest annually, it supplies up to 70% of the harvest in heavily belg-dependent pockets, predominantly in the Amhara region. These people may be without resources until July/August 2000 if some planting does not occur to take advantage of the krimt rains. Populations in South Tigray, Wag Hamra, North and South Wello, North Shewa, East Hararghe, Konso Special Wereda and areas of Wolayita (North Omo Zone) are particularly affected (OCHA - 26/07/99; WFP -22/09/99).
Wolayita
UN field assessment missions to selected areas including East Hararghe and Wolayita area have reported that large numbers of people have migrated from some villages. In addition to the lack of food, access to water is critical in certain areas (OCHA - 26/07/99; UNDP - 31/08/99a, 3/08/99b).
An SCF-UK report on Wolayita for June/July observed that overall nutritional status had remained at a satisfactory level. However, significant declines in nutritional status were observed in the eastern lowlands since the poor harvest in January (SCF-UK - 08/99a).
SCF-UK reported that cereal prices had increased very steeply and were similar to those recorded in 1994, which was a year of particularly high relief requirements. Food distributions had begun, but at the time of the report's publication the amount received had been insufficient to affect market prices. Farmers were highly dependent on food purchases: 97% of lowland and 91% of highland households reported buying cereal from the market in the week prior to interview (SCF-UK - 08/99a).
North Wollo/Wag Hamra
SCF-UK has reported that the nutritional situation in North Wollo East and Wag Hamra has deteriorated since April because of the belg failure. The cumulative effect of poor belg and meher rains during the past two years has resulted in increased vulnerability as the households have sold assets (primarily livestock) to purchase food. Cereal prices have increased since January, particularly in North Wollo. Given the current depletion of food stores it is unlikely that there will be any improvement in the nutritional situation of this population in the coming months and there is a need to continue providing food assistance to this population (SCF-UK - 08/99b).
WFP has reported that a nutritional assessment by MSF-Switzerland in Wag Hamra of children aged 6-59 months (using MUAC) in Dehana wereda (district) recorded 19.7% acute malnutrition, which included 3.4% severe malnutrition (WFP - 22/09/99). This report is not yet available to the RNIS, but it should be noted that MUAC surveys are normally only undertaken on children aged 12 months or more and thus the prevalence of malnutrition may have been over-estimated.
Funding response
Recent donor response for the drought victims has been encouraging. 93% of the cereal pledges have been met for the second half of this year. However, non-food needs are still under-funded. The government has responded to the crisis by distributing seeds and cash to farmers through their wereda councils. FAO are also distributing seeds. However, many farmers remain unable to take up their normal farming activities as they have no tools nor oxen. In addition to these problems, it is widely believed that more than the current estimate of 5 million people require assistance in Ethiopia. There is an expectation that these figures will be revised over the coming weeks (UNDP -12/08/99; WFP - 22/09/99).
Refugees in Ethiopia
The latest (May) UNHCR epidemiological report on the 196,000 Somali and 63,000 Sudanese refugees reported that CMR in the Sudanese camps in the west of the country was 0.15/10,000/day and 0.08/10,000/day in the Somali camps in the east of the country. The main causes of death were acute respiratory infections, diarrhoea, TB and malaria. The prevalence of malnutrition among the local population surrounding the camps has increased due to the drought, and hence the numbers of admissions to the supplementary and therapeutic feeding centres increased during the reporting period. All beneficiaries in the camps received a complete food basket (UNHCR -24/06/99).
Overall, the situation of IDPs on the Eritrean border in Ethiopia is cause for concern, although details are unavailable. These people are therefore categorised as at unknown risk of malnutrition (category III). The nutritional situation of the refugees is not critical (category IIb). A very large number of Ethiopians are also suffering from the consequences of the drought.
Recommendations and priorities:
· Funding is still required to support the UN's appeal for the victims of the drought and border conflict.
