7. Somalia

There is a growing food crisis in central and southern Somalia. Based on the WFP/FAO/FSAU/FEWS 1999 Gu crop harvest assessment an estimated 1.2-1.5 million Somalis are at risk of being food insecure including: 730,000 in Bay, Bakool and parts of Gedo, 83,000 in Hiran, 193,000 in Lower Shabelle and 160,000 in Lower Juba. The total population is estimated at 6.04 million, thus between 20-25% of the population is at risk of being food insecure (FAO -03/09/99).

Following the collapse of the state and a decade of civil strife, Somalia remains deeply divided. In terms of development, the country can be split into zones of crisis, zones of transition and zones of recovery. Much of southern and central Somalia, including Mogadishu and the centre of agricultural production, belongs to the first category. There are high levels of insecurity, abuse of human rights, sporadic armed conflicts, and frequent population displacements. Over the reporting period fighting has intensified in many parts, and insecurity is impeding food production and assistance to war and drought victims. In contrast, in the recovery zones there is progress towards economic recovery and the area is usually safe and secure. These areas include most of Somaliland' (northwest Somalia) and parts of the newly established non-secessionist State of 'Puntland' (northeast Somalia). The zones of transition, which include Middle and Lower Shabelle, Hiran, Middle Juba and parts of Gedo, are characterised by highly localised (clan based) political activity, but also relative security.

Clan rivalry, insecurity, pressure on livestock systems, and a series of failed harvests have all depleted household resources and eroded their traditional coping mechanisms. The chronic vulnerability of many communities is likely to degenerate into acute vulnerability in specific locations if they are exposed to further shocks. Population groups with limited sources of food and income, particularly agriculturalists with little or no livestock, and people dependent on wage labour are continuously faced with high levels of food insecurity. Similarly, marginalised clans and minorities tend to be chronically vulnerable (FAO - 03/09/99).

Internal displacement in Somalia is considerable, although the definition of "internally displaced persons" is difficult to define in a society with a tradition of high population mobility. The fluidity of the situation, with new movements occurring regularly, makes estimates uncertain. The most recent estimate is 300,000 IDPs, the majority of whom are in Mogadishu (FAO -03/09/99).

Border closures and insecurity

The Kenyan government has closed its borders with Somalia and has extended a ban on all flights in and out of the country. If the ban continues it will have a major effect on humanitarian operations in Somalia, as many of the humanitarian assistance programmes are run from Nairobi, given the security and administrative problems in Somalia itself (IRIN - 27/08/99).

At the time of going to print the UN agencies and NGOs were planning to withdraw from central and southern Somalia due to the murder of a UNICEF medical officer (UNICEF - 21/09/99).

Economic situation

Newly printed currency continues to be pumped into the economy, causing substantial devaluation of the Somali shilling. Prices are rapidly inflating in virtually all markets where the old shilling is used, eroding the purchasing power of most Somalis. In July, the prices of imported food commodities such as wheat flour, sugar and vegetable oil rose by about 13% in Mogadishu and by as much as 18% in markets in the interior of the country. The prices have fallen more recently due to the harvest but are likely to increase soon as stocks run out (FEWS - 30/08/99).

Gu Failure

The Gu season 1999 (which normally accounts for 75-85% of Somalia's annual production) failed drastically in key agricultural production areas of Somalia. The main reasons for the failure include erratic and localised rainfall, army worm infestation at crop establishment, loss to birds, a lack of pesticides and subsequent pest damage, the displacement of farmers due to insecurity, small irrigation pumps and unsatisfactory gravity irrigation. This failure follows six consecutive poor harvests since 1996, resulting from the droughts and the unprecedented floods of early 1998 associated with the El Nino phenomenon (WFP - 03/08/99).

The most severely-affected are the poor agro-pastoralists in the regions of Bay, Bakool and parts of Gedo. Continued dry conditions in neighbouring regions of Ethiopia and Kenya, where Somali pastoralists drive their livestock in years when Somali pastures finish early, have put additional pressure on livestock systems. The below normal rainfall levels in the Ethiopian highlands, which feed both the Juba and Shabelle river basins, have adversely affected crop production in irrigated areas. In addition, there has been an army worm outbreak in Lower and Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, Bakool and Hiran regions (FAO - 08/07/99; FSAU - 07/99).

The fragile situation has been made worse by increased factional fighting in southern Somalia. Armed conflict has resulted in civilian casualties and consequent population displacements. Population displacement have been particularly common in Kismayo area towards Middle Juba and Kenya. Press reports indicate that 350 Somali families had crossed the border into Kenya by the end of June, trying to reach the Dadaab camps. Trade routes have also been disrupted or changed, although in some areas, e.g., between Kismayo and Mogadishu the trade routes have improved (OCHA - 07/99, WFP - 03/08/99).

Zones of crisis

In Gedo, the food security situation is deteriorating as cereal prices are higher than expected and supply is extremely low leading to reduced purchasing power for lower and middle income groups. No food assistance has been received in this region thus far. Employment opportunities are limited. Many IDPs and poor households dependent on rain-fed agriculture are already collecting bush products to survive (FSAU - 31/08/99).

In the "bread-basket" regions of Bay and Bakool, yields were significantly lower than normal. Crops have failed and pasture is sparse due to the prolonged dry spell. Water shortages are predominant in several areas. In Bay, following the harvest, cereals and pulses are readily available in the markets but they will run out relatively soon. In addition, the purchasing power of the population is still low. In Bakool, the food security situation is less satisfactory. Food availability in markets and in households are below normal, except in Tiygelow. The prices of local cereals are high. Significant numbers of poor agro-pastoralists have moved to the Bay region looking for alternative food and income sources as well as a better crop harvest (FSAU - 31/08/99).

Nutritional Assessments in Bay and Bakool

Three rapid nutritional assessments were carried out in late May in southern Somalia in Tiyeglow (Bakool), Qansaxdheer (Bay region) and Bardera Districts (Bay region). The assessments were carried out under difficult conditions and met several delays due to insecurity and staffing problems (see Annex). The estimated prevalence of malnutrition can be seen in the table* below.

	Acute malnutrition (MUAC<124 mm and/or oedema)	Severe malnutrition (MUAC<109 mm and/or oedema)	Median MUAC (mm)	Measles vaccination (history and scar)
Tiygelow, Bakool	12.2%	4.4%	140	49%
Qansaxdheer, Bay	14.7%	6.2%	142	50%
Bardera, Bay	35.7%	15.6% (oedema 12.5%)	134	76%

* According to the authors of the report, the results of the assessment in Bardera district may be incorrect. An inexperienced survey team may have over-estimated the prevalence of oedema in this area as there were no plausible explanations (i.e.: non-nutritional) for the high prevalence of oedema.

The assessment found a significant association between the prevalence of malnutrition and diarrhoea and fever in the two weeks prior to interview in Tiygelow and Qansaxdheer. An episode of diarrhoea was reported in 28-29% of children in the three districts and fever among 37-38% in all districts except Tiyeglow (44%). There was no significant association between nutritional status and measles vaccination status. Nor was there a significant association between nutritional status, the receipt of food assistance or Supermix. This was attributed to the relatively small amount of food aid received by the households compared to their overall needs (FSAU -31/08/99).

An inter-agency assessment of Bay and Bakool in late August/early September predicted that without adequate and immediate assistance to 300,000 persons (before the deyr rains) there will be mass displacement and severe food shortages. Chronic vulnerability of communities in the region was attributed to crop failures, limited access to safe water, price increases which are likely to rise further, low livestock production and increased sales of bush products (firewood, charcoal etc). Pastoralists were considered better able to cope than the agro-pastoralist population due to their relatively stronger asset base and ability to move with these assets to areas of better rainfall and pasture. Coping strategies that affect nutritional status included the reduction in number and size of meals, and inclusion of wild foods in the diet (WFP -22/09/99).

Levels of vulnerability of the population were distinguished in the assessment by: the degree of out-migration; asset loss; crop failure; market access; and livestock production. 73,000 persons were estimated to be "most vulnerable", while a further 126,000 were estimated to be "less vulnerable", and 100,000 were estimated to be "least vulnerable". These conditions are further compounded in some areas by conflict; in Bay region UNICEF found 61 villages totally or partially razed to the ground (WFP -22/09/99).

The inter-agency assessment reported the findings of UNICEF surveys in Baidoa and Burhakaba towns which found 21.6% and 28% acute malnutrition among children under five years of age. This report is currently unavailable to the RNIS.

Zones of transition

Food security conditions in these regions are dependent on the source of livelihood, i.e. the type of farming practised. Those in rain-fed areas have had very poor harvests and, in some cases the harvest failed completely. These households have no food stocks or only very limited supplies. Those in irrigated areas have had poor harvests and thus these households have poor to normal stocks. Market prices have decreased due to the harvest in most areas. No nutritional surveys have been undertaken in these areas. There have been no anecdotal reports of increased levels of malnutrition as yet (FSAU - 31/08/99).

Zones of recovery

Puntland

The food security situation in Puntland is bleak in the regions of Bari, Nugal and Mudug. Livestock is the backbone of the economy of Puntland and its inhabitants have suffered from the lack of water which remains scarce and expensive. The nutritional status of the livestock is apparently poor and pasture is sparse. The majority of the pastoralists migrated early in the Gu season. Milk production has fallen drastically and many camels are losing their calves which has implications for pastoralists' income from sales. The Cowpea belt has experienced a disastrous season (FSAU - 03/09/99).

As a result of the consecutive years of drought, many poor households have joined destitute camps established about eight months ago. Pastoralists who have lost their livestock and source of livelihood continue to arrive at these camps. In addition, families from Bay, Bakool and Gedo have also arrived. An unknown number of IDPs fleeing fighting in the Lower Juba valley have begun to arrive in the principal towns of Puntland. It is estimated that there may be 50,000 IDPs in these camps (FSAU - 03/09/99).

Somaliland

Pasture availability remains below normal in Somaliland. This is causing concern as it comes at the onset of what is normally the dry season. Pressure on pasture is causing conflict between herders from different areas regarding grazing rights, and conflict-related deaths have been reported. The Gu harvest was also very poor in this region, but there are indications that the next harvest - the Karan - will be more successful. Increasingly the bulk of annual cereal production is attributable to the Karan rather than the Gu. The Somali shilling's devaluation has reduced the pastoralists' access to food (FSAU - 31/08/99).

Overall, in the zones of crisis the cumulative impact of a decade of conflict, compounded by several seasons of below-normal crop and livestock production, and the degradation of civil and productive infrastructure have led to chronic depletion of resources and capacities to cope. Thus if exposed to further shocks, the chronically vulnerable communities in this area are liable to become acutely vulnerable and are considered at high risk (category IIa). Considerable differences exist in terms of the vulnerability of areas and communities, and thus the degree of risk varies between high and moderate (category IIb). No information is available on the nutritional situation of IDPs in Mogadishu (category III).

Priorities and Recommendations:

· Mobilise resources for WFP's appeal for food assistance in Somalia, and deliver assistance before the next deyr rains.

· Improve veterinary services and husbandry techniques.

· Improve and rehabilitate irrigation systems.

· In the zones of crisis, the international humanitarian system needs to establish clear working relationships with local authorities and local communities, which include: a common approach towards encouraging a transition to civil society; formulation of ground rules; better information sharing; and uniformity between agency programmes.

· Assuming security prevails, consideration should be given to increased international presence, and analysis and planning for preliminary rehabilitation, with a view to longer-term development.

· Provide food relief (an estimated 10,000 MT until December 1999) in the form of general food distributions, food for work, and support to social institutions.

· Provide food security interventions e.g., seeds co-ordinated with food distributions, and livestock health initiatives.

· Examine the feasibility of extending supplementary feeding to those not reaching MCH clinics.

· Strengthen health services.

· Establish standardised monitoring and indicators for the region in order to continue to assess and monitor the humanitarian situation.

· Assess water availability in relation to the need for rehabilitation of water catchment schemes and revitalisation of traditional water management practices.