There has been ongoing conflict in Afghanistan for the last twenty years, leading to massive displacements both within Afghanistan, and as refugee movements, into Iran and Pakistan. Ten years after the withdrawal of the last Soviet soldier in 1989 an armed conflict between opposing political factions still continues. Currently the Taliban control approximately 85% of the country, and the Northern Alliance forces, led by Commander Ahmad Shad Masood, control about 15%.
An upsurge in the fighting in late July has led to the forced internal displacement of up to 100,000 people in the northeast part of the country. According to first-hand accounts, Taliban fighters forced men, women and children out of their houses in the Shamali valley and told them to walk to Kabul (a 40 kilometre journey). The fighters intentionally set many houses on fire. There are no reports of the IDPs moving closer to either the Tajik or Pakistani borders and it is generally believed that there are unlikely to be large outflows, either to Pakistan or Tajikistan, unless the military situation in the Panjshir were to change drastically (UNDPI - 14/08/99, 16/08/99; UNHCR - 27/08/99).
New displacement - Kabul
The displacement from the Shamali Valley continued on a daily basis throughout much of August. By the mid-September it was estimated that up to 50,000 individuals had arrived in the capital since the fighting. The new arrivals confirmed that houses and crops have been destroyed. They also report systematic destruction of the agricultural system - boundary walls are being demolished and irrigation systems wrecked. This has resulted in the destruction of trees, including the important fruit crops which were ready for harvest. If widespread, this destruction will have a devastating effect on local communities (OCHA - 31/08/99, 14/09/99).
The diplomatic compound in Kabul is now occupied by 12,300 IDPs. WFP has begun providing them with 150g CSB, 20g edible oil and 20g sugar per person per day, and the local authorities are providing two loaves of bread per family per day. Basic non-food items have also been distributed and CARE has completed 52 latrines. Drinking water is available (OCHA -31/08/99, 14/09/99: UNHCR - 27/08/99; WFP - 20/08/99, 03/09/99).
In addition to those families accommodated within the diplomatic compound, a large number of IDPs have found refuge with friends and relatives in the capital. No serious deterioration has been reported in the condition of the IDPs living in the city outside the compound. Although, ACF has reported that there is an increase in the number of children attending the four supplementary feeding centres in district 11. (A survey reported in RNIS 27 estimated that the prevalence of wasting and/or oedema was 8.7% in children in Kabul aged 6-59 months). Animal prices have fallen in the main markets as some of the IDPs were able to bring their livestock to the city. While the sale of these animals will help the IDPs financially in the short-term, it will inevitably affect their ability to provide for themselves over the winter (OCHA - 24/08/99, 31/08/99).
New displacement - northern areas
There are an estimated 100,000 IDPs in the 150 km long Panjshir Valley, although the situation remains very fluid and thus a definitive estimate is currently difficult. While most of the displaced have found temporary housing with local families or public buildings, an estimated 20% are without shelter (OCHA - 24/08/99, 31/08/99; WFP - 03/09/99).
The displaced currently receive food from limited food distributions by local authorities (although stocks are believed to be dwindling), food stocks brought from their homes (e.g.: wheat), and from casual labour or picking fruits, maize and vegetables from crops planted by the residents of the valley. This early picking will reduce the crops for the upcoming harvest. A UN mission to the area in late August predicted that these sources of food will be severely reduced in the coming weeks. As an initial response WFP has begun to provide wheat flour distributed in the form of bread to the most vulnerable groups.
The mission identified major concerns. The weather will become progressively colder and snow is expected in the higher valley from October onwards. This is of great concern for the 20,000 people without shelter. In addition, access to the valley is extremely difficult - the northern routes are in bad condition and trucks can take up to three days to reach the main groups of displaced people from Faizabad. The southern routes pass through the areas of intense military fighting (WFP - 03/09/99).
A further 10,000 new IDPs are in Kunduz, Takhar, Badakhshan and Pulikhumri. The IDPs are accommodated in damaged public warehouses, government buildings, schools and homes of relatives, while some are in the open. UNHCR have provided them with drinking water. Anecdotal reports suggest "some incidence of diarrhoea, skin diseases and malnutrition" (OCHA - 24/08/99, 31/08/99).
Food security
According to an FAO/WFP report based on a recent crop and food assessment mission to Afghanistan, more than one million people in Afghanistan will need relief and rehabilitation assistance over the next 18 months because of a sharp reduction in cereal production this year. The report forecasts that the cereal production average will be 16% below average. The drop in production is due to a shortage of irrigation water as a result of the mildest winter in 40 years with very low snowfall, late and erratic spring rains. High incidences of yellow rust and sunpest have also damaged crops in the north and west of the country. In addition, agricultural recovery remains severely hindered by damage to irrigation structures and land mines (FAO/WFP - 07/07/99).
Despite stable prices and well-stocked food shops in the first half of 1999, access to food is severely limited by a scarcity of income-generating activities and lack of employment opportunities outside agriculture. This problem appears to be increasing as many displaced people add to the supply of casual labour while few additional employment opportunities are created. Low purchasing power is the single most important impediment to food security (FAO/WFP -07/07/99).
In urban areas, typically the major determinant of a household's ability to meet the minimum requirement per person per month is its male labour. If the major sources of household income are children's or women's work at home, then these households are more likely to have per capita income below the necessary for minimum food expenditure. The same is true for males employed in government service, or as daily wage labourers, or those in petty trade (see RNIS 27 for more detail). In rural areas, the landless, particularly in the highlands, are among those who have the most difficulty attaining minimum food needs (FAO/WFP - 07/07/99).
Cholera outbreak
Over 4,700 cases of cholera, including at least 50 deaths, were reported in Jaghori district of Ghanzi, Kabul city, Spin Boldak in Kandajar and Kunduz over the reporting period. Cholera task forces have been set up in all areas of the country and an oral re-hydration therapy and hygiene education and sanitation campaign has been officially launched. Work also continues on community-based water improvement schemes in various parts of the country (OCHA - 06/07/99; WHO - 07/09/99).
Funding
The response to the 1999 UN consolidated Appeal for Afghanistan has been disappointing. Although the level of activity in Afghanistan has been restricted by problems of access, opportunities to deliver assistance and thereby reduce vulnerability have been limited by low levels of funding. At the end of June only $41 million had been pledged out of a total of $112 million identified as high priority funding (OCHA - 22/07/99).
Returnees from Iran/Pakistan
Voluntary repatriation from Pakistan is ongoing. The refugees are provided with wheat, plastic sheeting and an entitlement of cash. More than 50,000 refugees have returned to their places of origin in different regions of Afghanistan since January 1999 (OCHA - 06/07/99).
UNHCR has reported that nearly 2,000 Afghans have returned to their country from Iran since the beginning of this year. As an agreement has not yet been reached between the Government of Iran and UNHCR, the expected return of 120,000 Afghans for 1999 has been decreased to 60,000. WFP provides 300 kg of wheat per returning family (OCHA - 14/07/99; WFP - 09/07/99).
UNHCR provides indirect assistance to 1.2 million people in at least 200 refugee villages in Pakistan. UNHCR helps to sustain government activities in health and education by providing medicine and salaries and other support. There are no reports on a change in the adequate nutritional status of the approximately 320,000 Afghani refugees requiring food assistance in Pakistan. The remaining refugees have established themselves in Pakistan and are considered to be self-reliant and self-sufficient.
Islamic Republic of Iran
The most recent estimate of the refugee population in the Islamic Republic of Iran was 1.9 million in December 1998 of which 1.4 million were Afghani and 0.5 million were Iraqi refugees. This is the largest refugee population hosted by any country in the world. Approximately 5% of the refugees are in camps, the remainder are dispersed throughout the country.
There have been no nutritional surveys conducted among the refugee population in Iran during the reporting period. However, WHO have recently conducted a review of the health situation of the refugees. The review reported that the provision of primary healthcare facilities in both camps and non-camp settings was of high quality with well-trained Iranian and refugee health workers, well-equipped facilities and a good supply of drugs. In terms of nutrition, the report quoted MOH statistics from within the camps of camp refugees. 4% of children under five years were below the third centile of weight-for-height compared to 11% in 1994; 45% of children were below the 3rd and 50th centile; and 51% between the 50th and 97th centile. In 1998, 8% of infants were born with low birthweight (<2500g) compared to 16% in 1994. No information on the nutritional status of non-camp refugees was available (WHO - 9/99).
Since 1998, the economy of Iran has been in recession due to a 39% decrease in its export revenue. Consequently the Government is finding it difficult to assist refugees. The unemployment rate is officially 9.1% but estimates place it as high as 25%. This crisis has reduced public expenditure, adversely affecting the heavily subsidised economy and worsening the living conditions of both Iranians and refugees. These hardship conditions have greatly limited economic opportunities for refugees outside camps, who have difficulty in finding even temporary jobs. The situation has resulted in a rising number of vulnerable refugees among the non-camp refugee population (WHO - 9/99).
Overall, the situation of the newly displaced, in particular, in Kabul City (50,000 from Shamali valley) and the 100,000 IDPs in the Panjshir Valley, is cause for concern. Despite a lack of specific information on their nutritional situation, those in the Panjshir Valley are considered to be at high risk due to their inaccessibility as the winter months approach (category Ha). The situation of people displaced earlier and those in Kabul is likely to be somewhat better, and thus they remain at moderate risk (category IIb). The refugees in Iran and Pakistan are considered to be at low risk (category IIc).
Priorities and Recommendations:
· Rehabilitate agricultural infrastructure, particularly irrigation facilities in Afghanistan.· Provide assistance to the newly displaced people in Afghanistan.
· Provide more financial assistance to the Government of Iran to assist the refugees in the country.
