Somalia

The humanitarian situation in Somalia continues to be of serious concern. The most recent estimates suggest that approximately 600,000 people living in the central and southern regions, excluding those in Mogadishu city, require emergency food assistance until the end of year, and possibly until the next gu harvest in July 2000. In the northern region the situation is generally less critical.

Following the collapse of the state and a decade of civil strife, Somalia remains deeply divided. It is a country of contrasts: local administrations in the north, supported by the international community, have achieved a degree of peace and stability; however, much of the central and southern regions, including Mogadishu, have features of a “complex emergency”. The population in northern Somalia is estimated to be about 1.75 million, comprising mainly pastoral communities and a rapidly increasing urban population. Livestock trade is the main source of revenue, providing daily subsistence to nomadic families. The estimated population for the whole of southern and central Somalia is approximately 4.4 million, including approximately 1 million in Mogadishu. In these areas there are high levels of insecurity, abuse of human rights and frequent population displacements (OCHA -11/99).

Due to insecurity it is difficult to estimate the number of IDPs and people requiring assistance in some areas of Somalia. The most recent estimate of the number of IDPs is between 300-350,000, the majority of whom are in Mogadishu. Approximately 50,000 of these people have been displaced in the past year (OCHA -11/99). An estimated 1.6 million people in Mogadishu, Lower and Middle Juba, parts of Gedo and Lower Shabelle are currently not reached by UN programmes (UNCT - 22/10/99).

Economy

Millions of Canadian-printed shillings were injected into the economy by Hussein Aideed. This has largely contributed to the continuing devaluation of the Somali shilling, thus significantly weakening people’s purchasing power (IRIN -18/10/99).

Southern and Central Somalia: Zones of crisis

A FSAU “Food Gap” assessment in August estimated that some 600,000 people in southern and central Somalia, excluding those in Mogadishu, will require emergency assistance until the end of the year. This is almost 18% of the region’s total population. Over half those requiring assistance are in Bay and Bakool regions. Some 50,000 of those requiring assistance are IDPs.

The crisis has arisen after the main gu harvest largely failed, due to low and poorly distributed rains, uncontrolled crop pests and farmers’ displacement. The failure was followed by an upsurge in fighting which has disrupted food production activities and assistance to civil war and drought victims (FAO - 04/11/99).

The cumulative impact of a decade of conflict, the collapse of the state and the disruption of social services, compounded by several seasons of below normal crop and livestock production and the degradation of civil and productive infrastructure, has led to chronic depletion of resources and capacities to cope. Agro-pastoralists in rain-fed areas are consequently extremely vulnerable to further shocks. Household food stocks and livelihood assets had already been extensively drawn upon before this year’s poor harvest following the failure of the gu rains. In 1998, crop failure forced households to purchase a large share of their food needs from markets, while income levels had already been eroded. This year, the pattern is repeating itself, but most households have a lower resource base (FSAU-15/10/99).

Gedo Region

The food security at the household level in Gedo Region is reported to be below normal. Widespread drought and insecurity are affecting the whole region. The drought has resulted in poor pasture and grazing conditions which have affected the livestock. Local cereal stocks are scarce and prices are high. Wild foods that are rain-dependent are no longer available. Aid deliveries have been hampered by the continuing violence, and the closure of the border with Kenya, which has further resulted in a decrease in the general food availability. Very few self-employment activities exist and income derived from these activities is negligible. The border closure has seriously lowered the income of people living in the border towns (FEWS - 28/10/99; FSAU - 05/11/99, 5/12/99; WFP -22/10/99),

Coping mechanisms are reported to be hardly functioning and the nutritional status of poor households in the region is reported to have deteriorated in both urban and rural areas. There have been population movements away from Burdubo and Garbaharey. An estimated 3,000 IDPs have migrated to Lugh (FSAU - 05/11/99,05/12/99).

Bakool Region

Yields from the gu harvest were significantly lower than normal in the “bread-basket” region of Bay and Bakool. A lack of deyr rains has resulted in a shortage of water, wild foods, pasture and a complete crop failure. There are reports of unseasonal, above normal, population movements towards the main villages and district centres, particularly from areas experiencing both water shortage and crop failure. The IDPs are reported to be in poor condition, particularly in Huddur where serious food insecurity has been reported. The number of non-Bantu households migrating was high, this implies that the situation is very poor in both agro-pastoral and pastoral areas of Bakool (FSAU -05/12/99).

WFP and NGO distributed some food in November and October; further food commodities were imported by traders in October (FSAU - 05/11/99,05/12/99).

Bay Region

Deyr rains were scattered, uneven and of low intensity throughout the region, leading some farmers to move towards established crop areas, e.g. Baidoa town and surrounding areas, in search of agricultural and self-employment. Prices of staple foods are reported to be increasing rapidly (FSAU - 05/12/99).

A summary of two nutritional surveys conducted by UNICEF in Burhakaba and Baidoa towns (the two largest urban centres in Bay) in August are presented in the table below (see annex). The prevalences of wasting and/or oedema are relatively high, although not as high as those presented for the IDP camps in these areas (see RNIS 26 and 28). The nutritional situation in these regions is very fragile.

Compared to UNICEF surveys undertaken in 1998, the prevalence of wasting and/or oedema in Burhakaba was 8% higher in 1999, although the prevalence was similar in Baidoa. The authors suggest that diarrhoea and acute respiratory infections (ARI) are important contributory factors in the development of malnutrition in these towns, given the relatively high prevalence rates reported. However, no analyses of the associations between morbidity and malnutrition were presented, nor an analysis of the food security situation.

Results of nutritional assessments in Bay Region

Indicator	Baidoa	Burhakaba
Estimated population	40,000	21,000
Female headed households	28%	13%
IDPs	8%	24%
Recent returnees (in last 6 months)	23%	7%
Moderate wasting (<-2 z scores, >-3 z scores)	15.5%	22%
Severe wasting (<-3 z scores)	3.5%	5%
Oedema	2.6%	1%
Measles immunisation	56%	71%
Vitamin A supplementation	56%	69%
Diarrhoea (prevalence)	30.4%	24%
ARI (prevalence)	56%	40%

The deyr rains in October were poor in Bay and Bakool (FSAU - 25/10/99). These rains are important to allow crops to germinate before the more concentrated rains in November. Should the November rains fail as well, further assistance may needed by vulnerable sections of the population until the next gu harvest in July 2000.

Lower and Midle Juba

Crop and livestock production have been near normal in these areas, and better than expected rains have maintained good pasture and water conditions as well as enabled some off-season crop production. Inter-clan fighting, however, has affected Middle Juba and some IDP movements have been reported. There could be an increase in IDP movements in the next few months. The closure of the Kenyan border is also having a negative impact on the economy and market activity (FSAU - 05/11/99).

Lower and Middle Shabelle

A near normal gu harvest in Lower Shabelle and better than expected rains have been reported during the third dekad of November, although insecurity in some districts is a continuing risk factor. Generally, the number of food-insecure households is low. More households in Middle Shabelle require food assistance, particularly those along the coast where the gu crop was minimal. No agricultural activity took place in rain-fed areas due to the lack of rainfall throughout October. The deyr rains in October were poor in Bay and Bakool (FSAU - 25/10/99). Water resources remain depleted (FSAU - 05/11/99).

Mogadishu

Benadir State has been hosting over 240,000 IDPs since 1991. They live in 160 camps, having moved from the Bay and Bakool regions to look for employment in Mogadishu and also because of a shortage of food and insecurity. Approximately 1,050 families arrived in Mogadishu during June and July due to fighting in Bay region. They have been integrated within the existing population (WFP -09/12/99).

The overall situation of the IDPs is reported to be poor. During the rains in November they are forced to live under leaking huts with little or no plastic sheeting. Coping mechanisms include selling ground nuts, cigarettes, local tooth brushes and supplying water or cooking meals. There is a need for food, shelter and healthcare. ACF runs therapeutic feeding centres and a number of Islamic agencies provide seasonal assistance, particularly during Ramadhan. WFP provides targeted supplementary rations to selected children and families considered to be at risk within the camps (WFP - 09/12/99).

There is no new information on the nutritional status of these IDPs. A nutritional survey or food security assessment should be undertaken in this area as soon as possible as these people are clearly vulnerable.

Central Rangelands

Despite suffering a particular food shortage due to the crop failure of the past three cropping seasons and below normal livestock productivity, this region is benefiting from the recent heavy deyr rains (FSAU - 5/11/99). This has meant water sources for people and livestock have improved, and the condition of livestock in most locations is recovering despite high numbers of deaths in a number of drought affected zones. Farming activities are considered normal (FSAU - 5/11/99; FSAU - 5/12/99). Prices of both imported and local commodities, and also live animals are increasing. Health conditions are thought to be gradually improving (FSAU-5/12/99).

Northern Regions: Zones of Recovery

Somaliland

A FSAU assessment in Somaliland has reported that food security prospects for this region are improving due to better economic (livestock) and climatic conditions, and also food aid and agricultural assistance. Current food insecurity is concentrated among poor pastoralists in the Haud areas of Sool and Toghdeer. An estimated 40-60,000 people are affected in these areas and require immediate, short-term assistance until the condition of their livestock improves (FSAU - 28/10/99; FSAU -10/11/99).

Puntland

A FSAU assessment mission in August confirmed that overall food security conditions remain precarious in eastern Somalia (Puntland), and that as many as 50,000 displaced and vulnerable people may require assistance in the months to come (FAO - 04/11/99; FEWS - 30/09/99).

Recommendations and priorities:

· Undertake a food security assessment or nutritional survey among the IDPs in Mogadishu.

· Continue and expand the general food distribution in Baidoa and Burhakaba towns and surrounding villages (to reduce the potential impact of a large influx of people into the towns).

· Continue and expand the distribution of UNIMIX to malnourished children through MCH centres and through teams in villages not covered by MCH.

· Re-establish support of community health workers in the district, with a view to increasing immunisation coverage.

· Reduce diarrhoeal disease by improving water sources and initiating effective chlorinating in the towns’ water supplies. Also, increase community awareness on prevention and management of diarrhoeal diseases.

· Provide supplementation to women during pregnancy and lactation.

· Install, and rehabilitate hand pumps for hand-dug wells. Initiate chlorination of water in the town.

· Provide immediate short-term assistance to protect assets and improve nutritional situation.

· Improve access to water for poor households.