ASIA

Bangladesh
China
Indonesia
Philippines
Sri Lanka
Thailand

ASIA

Bangladesh

When it became a nation in December of 1971, Bangladesh was already suffering from over-population, malnutrition and unemployment. The country was faced with the need to revitalize a ruined economy following the civil war, to rehabilitate 10 million refugees, and to reconstruct the essential irrigation network. Harvests had been destroyed and substantial food aid was required to stave off starvation. This was forthcoming in 1972 and 1973, although shortages persisted and the price of grain rose rapidly. The worst floods in the country's history (until then) occurred in 1974 and destroyed the summer rice crop, precipitating a major famine which lasted until late 1975. The nutritional status of the population overall deteriorated rapidly and surveys found that the proportion of third-degree malnourished children exceeded 25%. Rural-to-urban migration increased dramatically following the famine with the percentage increasing from 6% in the early sixties to around 15% in the mid '80's. Bangladesh is the world's most densely populated country at over 700 persons per square kilometre. About 80% of the population are considered to be living under the poverty line, and 50% of the rural population are landless in a predominantly agricultural nation.

Agriculture

Bangladesh's economy is largely based on agriculture. Some 62% of GDP is provided by this sector compared to only 12% by industry. Agriculture employs 80% of the economically active population. Although productively is low - over 70% of farms are less than 1 ha - the average annual growth in production of food grains during the second 5-Year Plan (1980-1985) was 3.5% which exceeded the rate of population growth (2.6%). The emphasis on high yield varieties of grain and support for irrigation has largely accounted for this. However, high production costs and reduced prices are factors against which further increases in production must contend.

The 1979 rice crop was drought-reduced and emergency relief was still being operated in the opening months of 1980. In spite of crop damage caused by a cyclone in April and localized flooding in September which destroyed a further 310,000 ha of rice, the 1980 harvest was substantially up on the previous year's. The record rice harvest of 1980 led to storage and marketing difficulties and low prices for paddy rice. This in turn ensured a reduced planting of 'Boro' rice (first crop) in December 1980. Heavy rains in March 1981 led to flooding and the loss of 300,000 tons of wheat and 120,000 tons of rice. July 1981 saw additional heavy monsoon rains only to be followed by drought in October and November. A cyclone in December caused flooding which resulted in the loss of 80,000 tons of rice. In consequence, rice production for 1981 declined in relation to the previous year's (see Cereals: Production & Food Production Index). There was widespread distress in the first half of 1982 owing to food shortages and high unemployment following the previous year's poor harvest (see Cereal Availability). A drought in late 1982 adversely affected the main-crop rice production at a time when the country had not fully recovered from the 1981 drought. However, overall cereal production was up slightly on the previous year's total. In early 1983 the Government launched an intensive cultivation programme to improve crop performance. September 1983 brought floods and damage to crops was estimated at a net loss of 100,000 tons. Nevertheless, as fertilizer use was 13% higher than for the corresponding period in 1982, the 1983 crop year reflected this with a further overall improvement on the previous two year's production (Cereals: Production).

The heavy pre-monsoon rains in May 1984 caused many deaths and considerable damage to crops and infrastructure. The Government organized a relief and rehabilitation programme and sought external emergency assistance. Extensive additional purchases of foodgrains were made to make-up losses (Cereals: Imports). Further damage to crops resulted in nearly 1 million tons being destroyed as a result of serious flooding in September 1984. Emergency food assistance was provided by donors and UN agencies (Cereals: Aid). The total losses for 1984 amounted to 1.54 million tons. To some extent this was compensated for by a higher than average yield from the wheat crop as a result of significantly increased plantings. In addition, Government-held stocks were disbursed which ensured, along with the timely arrival and distribution of food aid, that the average food supply remained stable (Kcals per day). Supply shortages were experienced in early 1985 and prices were 15% - 20% higher than normal until a higher than average offtake of Government foodgrain served to correct this. A cyclone and associated tidal waves in May caused extensive damage to crops and the death of 10,000 people on off-shore islands and southern coastal lands. In spite of this cereal production for 1985 was up by about 3% on 1984. Production continued upwards in 1986 although imports and aid were reduced which was reflected in cereal availability (Cereals and Cereal Availability). The first quarter of 1987 looked favourable. The harvest of the main-crop 'Aman' paddy rice in December 1986 had been equal to target, although just down on the previous year. The wheat harvest, reflecting favourable weather, higher plantings and increased use of fertilizer, was up by 5%. However by mid-year there were reports of the food supply being tight and Government stocks being at their lowest levels for several years. Widespread flooding occurred in July and August with rainfall 50% higher than expected. Serious crop damage ensued with losses of around 2 million tons (estimated as milled grain). September brought flooding of the Ganges and over 23 million people were affected. More than 25 million cattle died as a result.

Foodgrain prices were up 20% and emergency food aid was sought. Production for 1987 was down on the previous year's by over 3%. Cereal imports exceeded the previous highs in '72/'73 and '84/'85 (Cereals: Imports). The beginning of 1988 was favourable: the wheat yield was up, and the prospects for the early rice crop - 'Boro' - were good. By July extensive floods had destroyed 1 million tons of rice and 200,000 bales of jute and caused severe damage to infrastructure and many deaths. Over 28 million people were made homeless or otherwise affected. The main 'Aman' crop was badly damaged and expected to fall well below 1987's harvest. Government stocks were high at mid-year and adequate to meet needs for the short run; however, emergency assistance was required and the Government appealed to the international community for help. The total cost of the 1988 floods are estimated to be in the region of $1.1 billion.

The Economy

The most important source of foreign exchange for the country has been jute, the country's traditional cash crop. However, due to the decrease in international demand, prices have fallen by 8% per year on average. Even the cost of production is not currently being met, especially following drastic decreases in subsidies. A 30% decrease on acreage occurred between 1970/75 and 1980/'85. The situation changed in 1984 and '85 when the price of jute increased sharply and this was followed by a 51% increase in production during 1985/'86. The market subsequently collapsed.

A gradual devaluation of the Taka against the US dollar has taken place with the aim of increasing profitability and growth (Exchange Rate). The long-term negative balance of payment and terms of trade, have left the country with serious budget deficits. This has been compensated for to a degree by foreign assistance and heavy borrowing. Consequently, debt outstanding and disbursed (Debt) has been growing steadily - nearly doubling between 1980 and 1985. At the beginning of the '80's, high oil prices and poor jute prices resulted in a 35% drop in the balance of trade. With the value of imports around three times that of export earnings, the debt service ratio has been increasing sharply (against a declining trend between 1975 and 1980) (Debt Ratio).

During 1981 and 1982, a significant reduction in food subsidies resulted in an increase in the price of rice and wheat by 13% and 7%, respectively. By 1985, the consumer price had increased by 75% and food prices by a similar amount (CPI, FPI). Between 1981 and early '83, food prices rose at a lower rate than consumer prices generally. This trend was reversed thereafter (FPI/CPI). In 1987 increased food prices caused the inflation rate to rise by 11%.

Nutrition

Periodic occurrences of natural disasters have plagued Bangladesh with often severe consequences for human health and nutritional status. The available evidence for nutrition derives from a number of not strictly comparable surveys conducted since the mid-seventies¹. These relate to the rural population only (Wasted & Stunted Children).

¹ These surveys have been conducted by different organizations and as a consequence differences in important features occur. For example, sample sizes differ significantly, as do age ranges. The results tabulated here are presented and discussed in the 'Report of the Child Nutrition Status Module: Bangladesh Household Expenditure Survey, 1985-86', Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 1987.

The prevalence of stunting has also evidently decreased between the mid-seventies and the mid-eighties. Between 1982/'83 and 1985/'86 this trend may have reversed. This conclusion is felt to be more justified, since stunting, unlike wasting, is not so much affected by seasonal effects introduced by the timing of a survey. (However, any age-related bias resulting from differences in sample coverage would tend to give a higher prevalence estimate in the later years when the children between 3-5 months were not included. Thus the differences in prevalences between 1982/83 and 1985/86 may not be as pronounced as it appears.)

From the most recent study area differences can be contrasted. The prevalence of underweight (Urban/Rural Prevalences) shows some differences between Urban and Rural groups, although this is not consistent across the Gomez classification. Seasonal differences in wasting are quite pronounced and are in accordance with expectation as the 'lean' period is from around May to September (Seasonal Prevalence of Wasting).

BANGLADESH

POPULATION: 106.7 M	IMR: 120
POPULATION DENSITY: 741 per sq. km.	U5MR: 191
POP. GROWTH RATE: 2.6% per annum	GNP (PER CAPITA): US$160
PERCENTAGE URBAN POP.: 13%	ESTIMATED PREVALENCE LEVEL UNDERWEIGHT CHILDREN: 70% - 80%

GRAPHICS

ADDITIONAL FOOD & ECONOMIC INDICATORS

CEREALS (1,000 MT)

IMF CREDIT (US$ MILLIONS)

URBAN/RURAL PREVALENCE OF WASTING

% PREVALENCE - Prevalence of underweight (Wt/Age) in children aged 6-71 months, 1985/'86. Gomez Classification.

SEASONAL PREVALENCE OF WASTING

% PREVALENCE - Prevalence of wasting (<80% Wt/Ht) by season and area.

China

Since the end of the 1970's, the Chinese economy has been subjected to massive restructuring, including a series of reforms and programmes of economic readjustment, to correct economic imbalances.

Economic reforms began in 1978. To achieve economic growth a multi-part strategy was planned: industrial growth (through large scale imports of industrial plant from overseas), expansion of China's international relations, growth in agricultural output supported by improving mechanization programmes and increasing incentives, and decentralization of economic decision-making from state to regional levels. China joined the World Bank and the IMF in 1980. Based on the policies of readjustment initiated in December 1980, during 1981 and 1982 considerable progress in meeting targets was made. A number of the targets planned to be reached by 1985, in the 1981-85 plan, had been achieved by 1983.

Stabilization plans supported by a standby arrangement with the IMF led to a considerable surplus in the external current account in 1982 and '83. Both agriculture (see Food Production Index) and industry performed well. There was a 9.2% increase in grain output in 1982. Total cereal production (Cereals: Production) showed an impressive increase especially after 1981, leading to a sharp decrease in cereal imports required in the period 1983-85 (Cereals: Imports). Total cereal aid thus decreased in 1983 (Cereal: Aid). Grain, which provides the bulk of the population's calorie intake, is the most important agricultural product of the country. Production of other crops also improved considerably. Total cereal availability rose between 1980 and '84, but decreased in 1985 (Cereal Availability). Food availability (as measured as Kcals.) increased significantly during 1982-85 (Kcals per day).

1983's economic growth continued in 1984. This was also true for agriculture, with gross production increasing by 20% over 1980 and continuing upwards through to 1987 (Food Production Index). Grain output went up by a further 5% and the growth in industry (14%) was significantly higher than planned. However, external imbalances reappeared in the second half of 1984 leading to an expansion in credit, rising prices, declining reserves and a large deficit in the current account from the surplus in 1983. Total cereal availability decreased in 1985 (Cereal Availability) following a decrease in cereal production (Cereals: Production) and cereals imported (Cereals: Imported). Production rallied in 1986 and continued upwards in 1987.

The rate of currency devaluation slowed down in 1983, increased considerably in 1984 and to a much higher extend in 1985 and 1986 (Exchange Rate). Adjustment measures resulted in a slowing down of the growth in output and a deficit of $12 billion (4.5% GDP) in the external trade balance arose mainly due to a 60% increase in imports.

Since 1985 the Chinese economy has been facing several difficult problems particularly in relation to the control of investment and the balance of payments. Foreign loans amounted to 2500m Yuan in 1985, and this figure doubled in 1986. However, it must be appreciated that although the external debt nearly quadrupled between 1980 and 1984 (Debt), the GNP almost doubled, and the debt service ratio has been maintained at a very low level at just over 1% (GNP & Debt Ratio).

Total foreign debt increased from US$20 billion in 1985 to US$26 billion in 1986 and US$32 billion by the end of 1987. This showed a modification of the previous policy of keeping foreign borrowing levels low. To control imbalances in the rate of foreign investment and foreign loans, stabilization measures including another 15% devaluation of the currency were taken in 1986. Limits on domestic and foreign loans were placed to reduce the account deficit to 4% of GDP in 1986 and down to 2.3% of GDP in 1987. Tighter controls on imports in 1986 reflected in an improvement in China's trade and balance of payments position, making the value of imports much lower than the value of exports. This resulted in the reduction of the visible trade deficit to some $12000m and down to only $2000 m by the middle of 1987.

1987 saw further limited reforms in the Chinese economy. While economic growth was somewhat faster in 1987 compared to 1986, the Government had to face problems such as the unsatisfactory summer harvest, and a rise the budget deficit. Drought by the end of July had damaged 26 million ha. of summer wheat. In the first half of 1987, prices, especially for non-staple foods, rose by 13.9%. This led to temporary rationing of some items, e.g. eggs, in Peking. Price stability thus became one of the economic priorities in China in 1987 and in late August 1987, the Government imposed price controls over a wide range of products.

Nutrition

Survey's conducted in Beijing on school-children between the mid 1950's and mid 1980's, show a remarkable increase in mean weights, especially of the 13 year old children (males and females). Much of the gain had taken place by 1979 for all age groups. Between '79 and '85, only the 13 year olds continued to increase in mean weight (Mean Weights). A similar gain -perhaps not as pronounced - is to be seen in mean heights in Beijing for both sexes (Mean Heights & Weights). A contrast of the mean weights for preschool children based on National (Urban only) data between 1975 and 1985 show gains for the 0-1 month babies, but little change for the remaining age groups. A comparison of the latest reported mean weights and heights for boys and girls with the WHO/NCHS standards shows that Chinese children are now approaching the reference medians, especially with respect to stature.

CHINA

POPULATION: 1,088.6 M	IMR: 33
POPULATION DENSITY: 114 per sq. km.	U5MR: 45
POP. GROWTH RATE: 1.2% per annum	GNP (PER CAPITA): US$300
PERCENTAGE URBAN POP.: 21%	ESTIMATED PREVALENCE LEVEL UNDERWEIGHT CHILDREN: -

GRAPHICS

ADDITIONAL FOOD & ECONOMIC INDICATORS

CEREALS (1,000 MT)

IMF CREDIT (US $ MILLIONS)

MEAN HEIGHTS & WEIGHTS

MEAN HEIGHT (CM) - Change in mean height in males 7-13 years in Beijing (Urban): 1950's to 1985

MEAN HEIGHT (CM) - Change in mean height in females 7-13 years in Beijing (Urban): 1950's to 1965

MEAN WEIGHT (KG) - Change in mean weight in males 0-15 months National (Urban): 1975 & 1985

MEAN WEIGHT (KG) - Change in mean weight in females 0-15 months National (Urban): 1975 & 1985

MEAN WEIGHT (KG) - Change in mean weight in males 24-66 months National (Urban): 1975 & 1985

MEAN WEIGHT (KG) - Change in mean weight in females 24-66 months Notional (Urban): 1975 & 1985

Indonesia

Indonesia, with an area of 1,904,569 sq. km., is the world's fifth most populous nation. About 6,000 of 13,600 islands of Indonesia are inhabited. Around 65% of the total population live on the three islands of Java, Madura and Bali, which together account for only 7% of the total land area. Due to the very high population density these most developed and most fertile islands of Indonesia also accommodate some of the poorest elements of the community. Over the course of the last 25 years or so, the Infant Mortality Rate (see Infant Mortality) has declined by nearly one half between 1960 and the present.

The Economy

Serious disruption of the economy in the pre- and post independence years, resulted in its virtual collapse by 1965. A huge external debt, budget deficits of around 50% of total government expenditures, a very high annual inflation rate of over 650%, together with a very low foreign exchange reserve were results of profound economic deterioration during the mid-1960s.

In 1969 a series of five-year Development Plans were begun with considerable external financial support. The first (1969-74) and second (1974-79) Development Plans aimed at achieving agricultural growth and increasing food production. In the 2nd. 5-year Development Plan, a more even distribution of economic development and industrial growth was emphasized.

Many of the targets were reached in the course of these Development Plans. The average annual growth rates in real GDP were 7.3% and 7.7% during the first and second Plan periods, respectively. In the 1970's, increased export earnings from oil reduced the effective contribution of agriculture from 70% of total exports in 1969 to less than 9% in 1983. Just before the launch of the 3rd. 5-year Plan (1979-83), petroleum prices declined and although the government had already devalued the Rupiah by 34% in 1978, another devaluation of around 28% was required in early 1983 (see Exchange Rate). A programme of structural adjustment was begun in 1983, with the further weakening of international oil prices. Up to 1981, in spite of having extensive natural resources, Indonesia had been classified as a low-income country, but in 1981 for the first time GNP per caput exceeded US$500 and the country was re-ranked as a middle income country by the World Bank. Real GNP grew steadily between 1980 and 1985 (GNP), as did debt outstanding and disbursed (Debt). The debt service ratio increased slightly between 1980 and 1984, followed by a more significant jump in 1985 (Debt Ratio). To help increase Indonesia's competitiveness in exports a 31% devaluation of the Rupiah took place in September 1986 (Exchange Rate). Immediately after this, inflation rose by 20%-40% but average inflation for 1986 was 8.8% which was around twice that for the previous year. Public expenditure and the volume of imports were reduced significantly.

Despite extensive loans from the World Bank, the IMF, and the Export Import Bank of Japan, domestic problems continued, especially in late 1985 following a decrease in the value of the US$. External borrowing had to be increased to maintain economic growth; over the period from 1980 to 1985, the debt service ratio more than doubled from 8% to 20%, with a significant jump in 1985.

Agriculture

Although rice production increased substantially the aim of rice self-sufficiency was not reached in the first two 5-year Development Plans. During the 3rd. Plan food and total cereal production, including rice, increased in 1981 and sub-sequent years (Food Production Index & Cereals: Production). Total cereal availability increased in this period while per capita calorie availability remained steady, reflecting a diversification of the diet (Cereal Availability & Kcals per day). The 4th. 5-year Plan, launched in 1984, faced a deterioration of the country's terms of trade, forcing Indonesia to reduce imports and capital intensive activities. 1983's upward trend in food production continued into 1984. Production of rice increased considerably - in fact it more than doubled between 1969 and 1984. Indonesia became self-sufficient in rice in 1984/85, although this was achieved at a high economic cost given that the domestic price for rice, in the face of declining international market prices, was kept at the 1981 level by subsidizing both inputs and outputs and replacing a consumer subsidy with a producer subsidy.

Food and consumer prices showed a regular increase from 1980 to 1987 (FPI, CPI) - not quite doubling during that period. Relative food prices actually decreased from 1981 to late '85 (FPI/CPI) but began to rise more sharply in 1986. Except for a slight decrease in 1982, the food production index had progressively increased over the period 1981-86 (Food Production Index). Total cereal production and total cereal availability rose in parallel. 1987 saw a downturn in cereal production and availability after the worst drought in the country since 1982. Following an increase in the area planted, 1988's rice crop was slightly up on the previous year's.

Nutrition

A comparison between the prevalence of underweight pre-school children (recorded as <70% Wt/Age) in 1978 and in 1986, shows little change when viewed nationally or for rural areas alone, but does show an improvement in urban areas (Underweight Children). Moreover, with just two exceptions (Sumatra and Maluku), the prevalences of underweight children across 9 provinces in 1986 as compared to those of 1978, decreased (Provincial Prevalence). The range of prevalence values (with the <70% cut-point) for 1986 is between 10% and 15% with the notable exceptions of Nusa Tenggara and Maluku (both close to 20%) and Bali which has the lowest prevalence at under 5%.

INDONESIA

POPULATION: 172.2 M	IMR: 85
POPULATION DENSITY: 90 per sq. km.	U5MR: 120
POP. GROWTH RATE: 2.2% per annum	GNP (PER CAPITA): US$490
PERCENTAGE URBAN POP.: 27%	ESTIMATED PREVALENCE LEVEL UNDERWEIGHT CHILDREN: 25% - 35%

GRAPHICS

ADDITIONAL FOOD & ECONOMIC INDICATORS

CEREALS (1,000 MT)

IMF CREDIT (US $ MILLIONS)

PROVINCIAL PREVALENCE

% PREVALENCE - Prevalence of underweight (<70% Wt/Age) in children aged under 5 years: 1978 & 1986. By province.

INFANT MORTALITY

INFANT MORTALITY RATE - Change in Infant Mortality Rate between 1960 and 1987

Philippines

The Philippines is an archipelago of 7,107 islands located 600 miles off the southeastern coast of the Asian mainland. It has a total land area of 300,000 sq. km. Its proximity to the equator gives it a tropical climate with pronounced wet and dry seasons. The islands are divided into three main groups: Luzon which is situated in to the north, Visayas, a scattered collection of small islands in the centre of the archipelago, and Mindanao, which has one major island surrounded by minor ones, in the south. The population was estimated to be 58 million for 1987, and growing at a rate of 2.5% per annum. The average population density is high at around 190 persons per sq. km., with a particularly high concentration in the National Capital Region (NCR) of 1,100 per sq. km., in contrast to the least densely populated region of Cagayan Valley at 69 per sq. km. While the NCR is 100% urban, nationally the rural population is approximately 60%.

The Economy

The Philippines experienced accelerated growth in the 1970's compared with the previous decade. A growth trend which, like most developing economies, slowed down in the early eighties as a result of the world economic recession. It is anticipated that the effects of that recession will not disappear in the immediate future; and in fact the situation deteriorated to such an extent that in 1984/85 the country experienced the worst economic crisis since the second World War. This was triggered by a second oil crisis and resulted in increases in export prices - making the Philippines less competitive - which was compounded by a decline in the volume of goods exported due to a lower worldwide demand. The Philippines was now faced with a foreign exchange shortage and a very high external debt (see Debt). To further exacerbate the affects of the recession, external funds and investments from donors were less readily available.

At the domestic level, 1983 saw a cutback in imports of raw material which adversely affected home production. GNP fell dramatically in 1984 (GNP), unemployment rose subsequently, as did the cost of living (CPI). Unemployment rose from 5.4% in 1983 to 7.3% in 1984; under-employment remained high. At this time, the purchasing power of the Peso declined by 30% and consumer prices increased by 50% and continued upwards (CPI). Food prices grew at approximately the same rate as the general consumer prices (FPI/CPI). There were two consecutive annual decreases in GNP -1984 and again in 1985 (GNP). Government expenditure was drastically reduced between 1982 and '84, particularly in the economic and social services. Industry was severely affected, but the agricultural sector showed positive growth in 1985 and '86. The Philippine government reached agreement with the IMF in December 1984 for the period January '85 to June '86 which increased its stand-by credit substantially (IMF). The exchange rate was allowed to float in 1984 after successive depreciations since late 1982. The rate rose at the end of '84 before stabilizing (Exchange Rate). In addition, the government instituted its own reform measures in 1985/'86, and as a result 1987 saw a measure of economic growth. If this trend continues, the Philippines is expected to show a marked recovery by 1988.

Agriculture

While employing 50% of the labour force, the agricultural sector accounts for just under 30% of GDP. Its importance to export earnings has declined during the last two decades, presently its contribution is about 16% of the value of exports. This sector showed positive growth in 1985 to '86 following three poor years in 1983 to '85. Food production indices reflect this with a decline to 93.5% in 1983 from 96.1% in '82 and a further decline to 94.1% in 1985 (see Food Production Index). Yet, cereal production and availability actually rose steadily subsequent to 1982, until 1987 (Cereals: Production & Availability). Total food available for consumption (measured as kcals) has changed little over the period (Kcals per day).

Nutrition

Following 1980, a decline in IMR continued steadily (see Infant Mortality). The prevalence of underweight children, which showed a drop from over 20% in 1978 to 17% in 1982, then rose again in 1984 and '85 to the 1978 levels (Underweight Children). However, the data show a possible improvement after 1985 (although the data for 1984 onwards are not strictly comparable with the previous two points, as they are derived from the national Nutritional Surveillance Programme. Those for 1978 & '82 are based on national surveys. Thus the comparison should be treated as indicative only).

Regional prevalences are also shown, with Regions 1 through 12 having a general North to South gradient (see Regional Prevalence). The rates confirm both temporal and inter-regional differences of some magnitude. Region 5 experienced a prevalence in excess of 30% in 1984, declining to around 25% in 1986; by contrast Region 6's levels rose between 1984 and '86. The National Capital Region (NCR) has a consistently high prevalence which is second only to that of Region 5, although these are not contiguous. Broadly speaking, prevalence figures for 1984 exceed those for 1986 for Regions 1-5, and this is reversed for Regions 6-12 and NCR, suggesting a crude regional gradient.

PHILIPPINES

POPULATION: 58 M	IMR: 46
POPULATION DENSITY: 193 per sq. km.	U5MR: 75
POP. GROWTH RATE: 2.5% per annum	GNP (PER CAPITA): US$560
PERCENTAGE URBAN POP.: 41%	ESTIMATED PREVALENCE LEVEL UNDERWEIGHT CHILDREN: 30% - 40%

GRAPHICS

ADDITIONAL FOOD & ECONOMIC INDICATORS

CEREALS (1,000 MT)

IMF CREDIT (US $ MILLIONS)

TRENDS IN REGIONAL PREVALENCE

% PREVALENCE - Prevalence of underweight (<75% Wt/Age) in children aged under 6 years: 1984-86. By region. National Weighing Programme.

% PREVALENCE - Prevalence of underweight (<75% Wt/Age) in children aged under 6 years: 1984-86. By region. National Weighing Programme.

% PREVALENCE - Prevalence of underweight (<75% Wt/Age) in children aged under 6 years: 1984-86. By region. National Weighing Programme.

INFANT MORTALITY

INFANT MORTALITY RATE - Change in Infant Mortality Rate between 1975 and 1986

Sri Lanka

Since Sri Lanka gained independence in 1948, successive government policies have emphasized social development, for example in the areas of literacy, health services, and access to food. Results of such policies are to be seen, for instance, in the notably low infant mortality rate (estimated at 34 per 1,000 live births for 1987). However, in recent years political and economic factors have hindered continued progress.

During the period 1970-77, a high population growth rate together with an average annual GNP growth rate of only 2.9%, imposed a continuous strain on fiscal and budgetary management; a serious consequence was rising inflation and unemployment rates. In 1977, several economic reforms were planned in order to achieve added growth and development of the national economy. Food subsidies (particularly for rice) were reduced and price control policies reviewed. Between 1977 and 1986, these strategies led to a doubling of investment in real terms and to a lowering of unemployment from 25% to 15%. However, the resulting inflation raised prices for foods and fuel, which had an inevitable impact on vulnerable population groups. In 1978, food stamps were made available to the low income groups which allowed minimum consumption levels to be maintained, and replacing the general rice subsidy. But the fixed value of the food stamps meant a restricted ability to obtain some of the basic foods in the face of increases in prices of these commodities. Prices of both foods and other items increased steadily during this decade (see CPI, FPI), approximately doubling by 1987. Food prices have risen at the same rate as general commodities (FPI/CPI). Substantial cuts, relative to GDP, in public and social service expenditure in the early eighties, reduced annual inflation rates from 25% in 1980 to less than 15% during 1981-84.

Despite the emphasis placed on the manufacturing sector, the economy remains predominantly agricultural. The annual rate of increase in the productive capacity of domestic agriculture was about 5% between 1979 and 1984. The output of paddy rice alone, which is the principal crop - covering one third of all cultivated land - increased by 55% overall between 1977 and 1986. However, 1981 and 1982 witnessed a decrease in total food production (Food Production Index), although cereal production rose in 1981 (Cereals: Production), as did imported cereals and cereals received as food aid (Cereals: Availability, Imports & Aid). In 1982, total cereal availability decreased slightly with decreases in production. Accordingly, dietary energy supply (as kcals per caput per day) failed to increase in 1981 and 1982 (Kcals per day). This trend was reversed in 1983 when there was an increase in total food and cereal production. There was a corresponding rise in cereal availability and food availability (Cereal Availability & Kcals per day).

The net inflow of private foreign investment funds had increased substantially since 1978, but the Sri Lankan economy as a whole suffered a major set-back as a result of ethnic disturbances which escalated after 1983.

The output of paddy rice, which had dropped in 1984 due to floods, increased in 1985 with a record harvest. But the 1986 crop was adversely affected by both drought and civil disturbances. Following on a reduced 1987 crop, due to another poor harvest and the continuing civil strife, large imports were required to replenish stocks. FAO reported persisting shortages in some areas during 1988 although the main rice crop was about average.

The export potential of the agricultural sector, with three major crops namely tea, rubber and coconut, has not been fully realized. For example, in 1985/'86, the average annual output of tea was only 4.9% above that of 1976-77. After a temporary recovery of tea prices and a resulting improvement in export earnings in 1984, 1985 and '86 saw tea prices declining by 44%. Thus in 1986 Sri Lanka's export earnings decreased by 6%, mainly due to a drop in world commodity prices. At the same time, the ethnic disturbances were estimated to have cost the government around 7% of GDP in 1986.

The rupee was allowed to depreciate by about one third in relation to the US dollar between January 1983 and December 1986 (Exchange Rate) in order to increase Sri Lankan export competitiveness in international markets. Prices in 1987 for the country's traditional tea, rubber and coconut exports, reached their lowest levels since the second World War. This, in addition to the large defence expenditure and drought, placed Sri Lanka in a position that it required urgent external assistance. The country has experienced a chronic balance of payment deficit since at least the late 1950's up to the present time. An ever increasing foreign debt trend during 1980-'86 (Debt) coupled with the rise in the debt service costs (Debt Ratio), have been most important problems facing the economy.

Nutrition

The available data relate to two surveys conducted in 1980/'82 and 1986. As different age groups were included in both studies, comparisons must be judged with caution. However, such evidence as does exist is consistent with an improvement in the nutritional status of preschool children. This is apparent for the Estate group for prevalence of wasting and more strikingly for Rural and Urban groups with regard to prevalence of stunting (Wasted & Stunted Children).

Marked differences in the prevalence of stunting are apparent between urban and rural communities for both surveys, somewhat less evident in relation to wasting, except for the Estate sector. Nevertheless, the data do indicate that, despite difficulties, nutrition probably continued to improve in the period 1980-86.

SRI LANKA

POPULATION: 16.6 M	IMR: 34
POPULATION DENSITY: 251 per sq. km.	U5MR: 45
POP. GROWTH RATE: 1.5% per annum	GNP (PER CAPITA): US$400
PERCENTAGE URBAN POP.: 21%	ESTIMATED PREVALENCE LEVEL UNDERWEIGHT CHILDREN: 40% - 50%

GRAPHICS

ADDITIONAL FOOD & ECONOMIC INDICATORS

CEREALS (1,000 MT)

IMF CREDIT (US $ MILLIONS)

Thailand

Thailand (formerly Siam), a country of 514,000 square kilometres, is situated on the Indochina peninsula of Southeast Asia between 5° and 21° north latitude. It is one of the tropical countries of Asia with the majority of the population engaging in agriculture. The population was estimated at 53.3 million in 1987 and growing at a rate of 2% per annum; population density is 104 persons per sq. km.

Concern with national family planning, communicable disease control and environmental sanitation featured strongly in national development plans since 1972. The expectation of life at birth has risen steadily between the mid seventies and the present: from 57.7 to 62.2 years for males, and from 61.6 to 66.2 years for females, respectively. The Infant Mortality Rate has dropped from 56 per 1000 live-births (1974/75) to 41 per 1000 live births (1985/86). The incidence of low birth weight has also decreased: 11.5% (1978) to 7.6% (1986).

Agriculture

Agriculture is the principal source of employment in the country, accounting for two-thirds of the labour force. This sector's contribution to GDP has been declining steadily since the sixties when it represented around 40% of GDP. By the eighties the percentage was down to 16%. In part this has been as a result of a sharp reduction in the value of agricultural products. Potential for expansion of this sector is limited. Increases in production have occurred as a result of more land being taken into cultivation, rather than improvement in productivity. With unreliable rainfall and limited development of irrigated lands, intensive production -especially of the main food crop, rice - has been hampered. Thailand now faces serious problems of land shortage and soil erosion.

Production of rice has shown a long-term positive trend. It is however subject to annual fluctuations which reflect rainfall patterns and area planted. In addition to rice being the main domestic staple, Thailand is also the world's largest exporter of rice, with foreign sales averaging in excess of 3 million tons per annum since the early eighties.

During 1980 flooding severely damaged crops in over half the country's provinces. Nevertheless, the aggregated output was up by 12% on '79's drought-reduced crop. Total food production was above average (and remained so until 1986, see Food Production Index). Rice production in 1981 was again up and total cereal production (including maize) and cereal availability rose (Cereals: Production & Cereal Availability). Erratic rainfall and flood damage ensured that cereal production fell by 6% in 1982, at a time when imports and aid were comparatively low (Cereals: Imports & Aid). Overall cereal yield for 1983 was up on the low of 1982 and exceeded the record figure for 1981. Flooding in 1983 was responsible for some crop damage. However, the main rice harvest (in February, 1984) was not unduly affected. Cereal production in '84 increased by 7% as compared to the previous year's and cereal availability continued to rise. In 1985, inspite of drought followed by excessive rain, the rice crop was again not too severely affected and for the 3rd. successive year total production was up.

Reduced plantings in consequence of a drought in mid-1986 affected the production of both rice and maize. Both crops were significantly down on the previous year's high. Imports remained stable but aid was at a record high (Cereals: Imports & Aid). Following lowered prices on international markets for rice, the area planted during 1987 was reduced significantly. As a consequence, production was back to 1980's level and down by 12% on 1986. 1988's weather conditions were generally favourable and the output for the rice crop was expected to be significantly higher than 1987's.

The Economy

Thailand's gross domestic product increased by an average of 6.6% (at constant prices) between 1961 and 1980. Growth slowed during the early eighties to around 5% per year. In 1985, GDP was rising at an average of 3.2% per annum. 1986 saw a sharp recovery following the reduction in petroleum prices and a more competitive export trade. During this period there was a marked deterioration in the balance of payments deficit and in foreign reserves. As GDP recovered in 1986 (to an annual growth rate of 4%) so too did the balance of payments deficit which moved into a slight surplus in the current account.

The 5th. National Plan (1982-'86) recognized the need to stimulate the private sector with particular emphasis on the development of a heavy industry. The central theme of the current 6th. Plan (1987-'91) is to tackle the problem of rural stagnation and poverty.

In order to address the serious balance of payments deficit during the early part of this decade, the Thai Government introduced a number of measures. The severing of the formal link between the Baht and the US$ occurred in 1981. There followed a devaluation of the Baht by 8% in 1981 and by a further 14.8% in 1984 (Exchange Rate). The intention was to reduce imports and make exports more competitive. However, these measures were inadequate to fully address the trade deficit. Export earnings did improve in 1986, in part as a result of a currency depreciation with respect to the Yen and the major European currencies.

The total foreign debt moved from just over $5 billion in 1981 to $16 billion in 1986, partly as a result of borrowing to finance the trade deficit. The debt service ratio rose dramatically during the same period (Debt Ratio) as did debt outstanding and disbursed (Debt). The consumer price index rose by a modest 40 points between 1980 and the end of 1987 (CPI). Food prices also rose moderately overall, and indeed fell during 1984 (FPI). Relative to general consumer prices, food prices actually declined particularly after 1984 (FPI/CPI).

Nutrition

The country's nutritional surveillance programme has carried out studies at village level since 1982. During this period coverage has increased substantially from just over 30 thousand villages in 1982 to around 56 thousand villages in 1988. The prevalence of first degree malnutrition (Gomez classification, using a national Thai weight-for-age standard) has dropped from 35.6% in 1982 to 20.9% in 1987 (Underweight Children) in pre-school children. In fact, the data show a steady improvement throughout the period.

Second degree and third degree malnutrition combined were 15.1% in 1982, also down to 2.46% in 1987 (Additional Trends in Underweight).

Considerable regional variation is seen in underweight prevalences. A 1986 survey found that 6% of young children nationally had weights less than 75% of the Thai reference value for their age (i.e. second and third degree malnutrition). However, the prevalences in the north-east, north, south and centre were 8%, 6%, 4% and 2%, respectively. At present most of the existing irrigation schemes and extensions to such schemes are in the central part of the country. This contributes to an explanation of higher rural incomes, better household food security and a lower prevalence of underweight children in this area.

Some degree of seasonality is suggested in the rates of undernutrition from the data from 2 provinces covering the last quarter in 1986 to the first quarter in 1988 (Quarterly Prevalences). However, the detection of seasonal differences would require additional years' data to confirm this impression.

THAILAND

POPULATION: 53.3 M	IMR: 40
POPULATION DENSITY: 104 per sq. km.	U5MR: 51
POP. GROWTH RATE: 2% per annum	GNP (PER CAPITA): US$810
PERCENTAGE URBAN POP.: 21%	ESTIMATED PREVALENCE LEVEL UNDERWEIGHT CHILDREN: 30% - 40%

GRAPHICS

ADDITIONAL FOOD & ECONOMIC INDICATORS

CEREALS (1,000 MT)

IMF CREDIT (US $ MILLIONS)

ADDITIONAL TRENDS IN UNDERWEIGHT

% PREVALENCE - Prevalence of underweight (Wt/Age. Thai Standard) children aged under 5 years. Gomez Grades II & III. National Weighing Programme.

% PREVALENCE - Prevalence of underweight (Wt/Age Thai Standard) children aged under 5 years in Bangkok. Gomez Grades II & III. National Weighing Programme.

QUARTERLY PREVALENCE

% PREVALENCE - Quarterly prevalence of underweight (Wt/Age. Thai Standard) children aged under 5 years. Gomez Grades II & III, for 2 provinces. National Weighing Programme.